Early this year, county officials paid for a poll to gauge how voters would feel about hypothetical tax increases.
It turns out there are big hurdles for all three approaches the county eyed.
The survey, conducted Feb. 22 through March 1, showed San Diegans are most enthused about taxing the rich. A majority of voters in all five supervisorial districts also think the county is headed in the wrong direction.
The FM3 Research poll tested a hypothetical half-cent sales tax measure – not the specifics of the one that’s on the November ballot to fund causes including health care, child care, Tijuana River sewage crisis solutions and public safety. It also tested a hypothetical real estate transfer tax on properties over $5 million, and a potential county payroll tax on people who make more than $350,000 a year listing similar funding line items as the sales tax increase that voters will consider later this year.
The polling came weeks after a coalition of labor and advocacy groups started gathering tens of thousands of signatures for the half-cent sales tax measure that has since qualified for the November ballot. The sales tax campaign argues the early 2026 polling doesn’t reflect what voters think of their specific pitch.
The survey of 727 registered voters found that 66 percent opposed a half-cent sales tax increase absent any details on what it might fund or how oversight would work. Sixty percent told pollsters that they favored the hypothetical real estate transfer tax on pricey sales, and 56 percent said they’d likely back a potential county payroll tax on high earners. Support for the latter two proposals dropped to 48 percent for the transfer tax after voters heard arguments for and against that approach, and to 52 percent for the payroll tax hike.
Further complicating matters, the county can’t raise real estate transfer and payroll taxes without tweaks to state law. Negotiations over a statewide November ballot measure that could place new limits on certain tax hikes have also clouded conversations in recent months about the county’s options.
Two county board Democrats whose fiscal subcommittee is working with consultants behind the polling effort say they have a responsibility to consider multiple ways to increase revenue as the county faces federal cuts and future budget challenges.
A spokesperson for the sales tax campaign, whose company is also part of the county contract delivering the polling, argued the poll results don’t signal bad news for the initiative that’s also now effectively the county’s first shot to combat expected budget hits.
“The county-commissioned poll tests a series of hypothetical revenue mechanisms, not anything even close to the San Diego County Health and Safety Act as voters will actually consider it with dedicated solutions for healthcare, wildfire prevention, children’s nutrition, 911 response and the Tijuana River sewage crisis, along with strict taxpayer safeguards,” campaign consultant Dan Rottenstreich wrote in a statement. “Using that poll to draw conclusions about voter support for the Health & Safety Act is fundamentally misleading, in particular given the unprecedented coalition uniting behind the measure including firefighters, hospitals, childcare providers and the Tijuana River clean-up’s top advocates.”
Rottenstreich and a spokesperson for county Board Chair Terra Lawson-Remer, who leads the fiscal subcommittee, separately seized on poll results showing 63 percent were “extremely concerned” or “very concerned” about how federal funding cuts could affect county services. Lawson-Remer spokesperson Spencer Katz also noted that 61 percent of voters polled recognized the county needs more funding for local services.
“Chair Lawson-Remer has stated her support for the citizen-qualified measure as one way to secure reliable, locally controlled funding as Washington pulls back support,” Katz wrote in a statement. “In the meantime, the Sustainable Fiscal Planning Subcommittee will keep looking under every rock for savings and efficiencies while evaluating all long-term revenue options.”
Vice Chair Monica Montgomery-Steppe, who also serves on the subcommittee, struck a similar tone in a separate statement.
“Federal funding cuts are putting essential county services at risk, and we have a responsibility to respond,” Montgomery-Steppe wrote. “Community input is one of many factors we consider as we evaluate how best to protect those services. We’re looking for efficiencies and evaluating every viable option so we can continue supporting the people and families who rely on county programs.”
Those Efforts Have Been Controversial
Board Republicans have criticized the fiscal subcommittee’s closed-door meetings and are now arguing for more transparency on the polling they say they didn’t know about until Voice of San Diego obtained it via a public records request.
A spokesperson for Democratic Supervisor Paloma Aguirre said she also hadn’t seen the poll.
Republican Supervisors Joel Anderson and Jim Desmond have previously raised concerns about polling on potential ballot measures that wasn’t shared with all supervisors.
Anderson got unanimous board support in April after he proposed guardrails for county-funded polling after Voice broke the news on the $89,000 Lawson-Remer previously spent on two polls. His item directed county staff to work on guidelines including a review process for polling contracts with outside firms and questions by county lawyers and public posting within 30 days after a poll is completed.
Anderson now expects an update on the policy at the board’s Aug. 18 meeting – and is frustrated by the latest polling revelation.
“All polling should be reported to the entire board and not just individuals,” Anderson wrote in a statement. “I’ve heard concerns from so many constituents about these issues that we are considering bringing even more transparency measures forward.”
Desmond was critical of both the polling and the fiscal subcommittee’s review of potential tax hike options. He also previously panned a subsequently cancelled request for bids for the county to hire lobbyists to urge changes to state law to allow for potential payroll and real estate transfer tax increases.
“Subcommittees shouldn’t be spending taxpayer money on polls, or anything else, without the full support of the board,” Desmond wrote in a statement. “And it doesn’t surprise me one bit that San Diegans don’t want to pay more in taxes when they’re already stuck with the highest gas and electricity bills in the country. We should be focused on lowering the cost of living, not finding new ways to raise it.”
Thus far, the county reports it’s paid consultants working on the polling and revenue measure research effort $160,000. Officials this spring quietly extended their contract for up to two years as sales-tax proponents wrapped up signature gathering for their measure. The total price tag for the contract remains up to $320,000.
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