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Live from Philadelphia, it’s an excellent fight card for UFC 330. Two title fights should be plenty interesting to top the marquee Saturday with a 12-fight card to dive into.
As the UFC books fights with finishes in mind, we’re again projecting the majority of fights to end inside the distance.
Nine of the 12 fights are expected to end by KO/TKO or submission, although the main event and co-main event are two of the fights expected to go the distance.
The entire card begins at 5 p.m. ET on Paramount+, followed by the main card at 9 p.m. ET.
UFC 330 predictions
Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry
Machado Garry is a talented fighter and should have a size advantage when he steps into the octagon with Makhachev, a former lightweight champion.
While the Irishman is undoubtedly talented, he’s a bit of an enigma as well. He constantly prefers to play things safe rather than take chances and go for it.
Against Shavkat Rakhmonov, we watched Machado Garry drop the first two rounds, win the third, and then bizarrely accept bottom position for the entire fourth round.
That lack of fight awareness is very troubling, though I think the talent is undeniably there.
Machado Garry is a strong counter puncher with good takedown defense and will not be a fish out of water when he is inevitably taken down by Makhachev,
As a big +290 underdog, you could do worse than wager on Machado Garry because you know the skills are there and, in theory, he will be the bigger man.
Machado Garry does this strange body triangle from the bottom position when he gets taken down, which stops his opponents’ movements but also forces him to lose minutes and rounds. If he does this against Makhachev, he will probably lose by decision, though the rest of his skills are good enough to win.
I do not expect Machado Garry to be submitted by Makhachev under any circumstances, but could see his usual lack of urgency to do anything of significance as a major factor in him losing minutes at a high clip. Still, the odds are too far off for me.
I could end up looking stupid here, but I am targeting Machado Garry to win on the moneyline, with some value on knockout at 11/1.
Remember, Makhachev was knocked down by Alexander Volkanovski, the 145-pound champion, and Machado Garry is massive for the 170-pound division.
Prediction: Ian Machado Garry moneyline (+290, theScore Bet).
Opponents Mackenzie Dern (left) and Gillian Robertson of Canada face off during the UFC 330 press conference. Zuffa LLC
Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson
Long one of my favorite female UFC fighters, Robertson gets her long-awaited championship opportunity. She really has improved across the board, both in her grappling and striking, proving as much with her dominant TKO win over Marina Rodriguez last year.
But Rodriguez is a terrible grappler, while Dern is perhaps the best submission artist we’ve seen in the division’s history.
Still, I think Robertson is being undervalued here for her activity, strength, and fearlessness when it comes to inflicting damage on her opponent.
For that reason, I am targeting Robertson to win, and I think she does so by KO/TKO via ground and pound.
Prediction: Robertson wins by KO/TKO (14/1, FanDuel).
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UFC 330 full card picks
Jalin Turner vs. Kaue Fernandes: Turner by decision (+650, BetRivers).
Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Dustin Stoltzfus: Abdul-Malik by KO/TKO in round one (+200, BetMGM).
Edson Barboza vs. Esteban Ribovics: Ribovics to win and the fight starts Round 2 (-120 or better).
Chidi Njokuani vs. Joel Alvarez: Alvarez by submission (+195, FanDuel).
Charles Johnson vs. Eduardo Chapolin: Fight goes the distance (-176, FanDuel).
Donte Johnson vs. Eric McConico: Johnson by KO/TKO (+128, BetRivers).
Vicente Luque vs. Tresean Gore: Gore by KO/TKO (+380, BetRivers).
Rafael Tobias vs. Lucas Fernando: Pass.
Neil Magny vs. Ramiz Brahimaj: Fight goes the distance (+173, Kalshi).
Jeremiah Wells vs. Myktybek Orolbai: Orolbai by submission (+245, BetRivers).
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