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Mets fans are clamoring for Carson Benge to be in the NL Rookie of the Year conversation, but the road map to that hardware is uncertain.
And it’s not because Benge isn’t playing his best baseball of the season – he’s hitting .321 in August with a .937 OPS, and we all have seen what he can do in the field.
So while the suddenly red-hot Mets, led by Benge, are on an impressive little spurt, winning 10 of their last 13 games, their rookie sensation sits at 22/1 at DraftKings to win the NL Rookie of the Year Award.
The clear favorite right now is Cardinals second baseman J.J. Wetherholt (-160, DraftKings), thanks mostly to his defensive prowess.
It’s not exactly sexy, but Wetherholt has the second-most outs above average and his 14 defensive runs saved rank fifth in MLB.
National League Rookie of the Year candidates
PlayerAVGHRRBIOPSWARCarson Benge.2731449.7502.3J.J. Wetherholt.2441646.7244.5Sal Stewart.2582691.8101.6
He’s left a crack in the argument with a .185 AVG in the month of August, though, and he wasn’t much better in July, when he hit .221.
Wetherholt has been so good defensively and good enough offensively — at least early on — offensively to make up for the misgivings of late.
He has nearly double the WAR that Benge does.
But for argument’s sake, let’s assume that Wetherholt doesn’t figure it out with the bat and is a virtual zero for the remainder of the season.
St. Louis Cardinals second baseman JJ Wetherholt has had a brutal second half at the plate. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Benge will still have to overtake Sal Steart, a slugging first baseman, who has burst onto the scene with Cincinnati and has 26 home runs and 91 RBIs in just mid-August.
Detractors point to declining second-half numbers; he has three home runs and seven RBI’s in 61 plate appearances this month.
Still, his .279 AVG and .771 OPS in August are just about in line with his gaudy .810 OPS and .258 season-long average.
Stewart’s glove is about league average at first base.
At the current pace, Stewart would have 34 home runs and 118 RBIs in 162 games – as he has not missed a game this season.
Those massive numbers bring us to historically significant rookie years like 1986 Jose Canseco (.240 AVG, 33 HR, 117 RBIs), 2019 Pete Alonso (.260 AVG, 53 HR, 120 RBIs) and even last year’s AL ROTY Nick Kurtz (.290 AVG, 36 HR, 86 RBIs).
Cincinnati Reds first baseman Sal Stewart (27) is putting himself with some elite company. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Asking Benge to overtake both of those players with six weeks to go is asking a lot.
But Benge is coming on really strong here, and there’s massive disagreement from the betting markets on his true price.
Learn all you need to know about MLB Betting
DraftKings is way off the market on Benge, pricing him at 22/1, while FanDuel moved his odds from 15/1 to 10/1 on Tuesday after the Mets’ star rookie impressed with two outfield assists in the same inning against the Padres in a 2-1 win Monday.
Even prediction markets are becoming bullish on Benge’s case, as Kalshi has him at +940 to win the award.
DraftKings doesn’t believe, but at 22/1 odds that’s an excellent price and certainly a bet in my book.
THE PLAY: Carson Benge to win NL ROY (22/1, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
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