Russian President Vladimir Putin may test the NATO alliance’s strength with an attack on an allied country as early as fall — including a possible land invasion, according to new US intelligence reports.
The reports on the potential of a limited assault, which could range from a cyber attack to a military incursion, come as the US deals with a shortage of critical munitions it would need to respond to such an attack from Russia or China, US officials told the Wall Street Journal.
An attack is estimated to happen between this fall and 2029, the intelligence assessment warned.Putin’s goal of an attack on a NATO nation is to force the US’s hand and fracture the 77-year-old alliance.
Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting with members of the Security Council in Moscow, Russia, Aug. 7, 2026. via REUTERS
“The question mark is how the United States would respond in that case,” Heather Conley, senior fellow with the American Enterprise Institute, told the Journal about the possibility of a Russian incursion.
“It has always been a goal [of Russia’s] to challenge the credibility of NATO and to separate the United States from its allies.”
The US believed Moscow would never provoke the long-standing North Atlantic Treaty Organization while its forces are entangled in its war with Ukraine — however, this year, officials determined Putin may be bold enough to test the alliance’s resolve.
Putin’s new openness to a NATO assault comes as he faces immense pressure at home to defeat Ukraine.
Russia has been dealing with increasing drone attacks from Kyiv on its oil industry and Putin’s forces, who have suffered heavy casualties, have been significantly slowed on the front.
Russia has already been shown it’s willing to push NATO, with Russian missiles landing in Poland and drones flying over Romania.
A house is destroyed by debris from a shot down Russian drone in Wyryki-Wola, Poland, on September 10, 2025. POland’s PM called it a major provocation aimed at the EU and NATO member. AFP via Getty Images
Police and forensic investigators examine the location of impact after a Russian drone struck an apartment building on Friday, May 29, 2026, in Galati, eastern Romania. AFP via Getty Images
Meanwhile, the US has severely depleted its stockpile of munitions by arming Ukrainian troops and in its ongoing conflict with Iran.
Stockpiles at risk include long-range Precision Strike Missiles and Army Tactical Missile Systems, as well as short-range Stinger surface-to-air missiles, officials told the Wall Street Journal.
